Would this were a lame Thanksgiving joke. [For non-Americans: Thanksgiving is exactly one week away.] In a double car bombing in Istanbul, 27 were killed (including the British Consul-General in Istanbul) and 450 wounded. A shadowy Turkish Islamic group and Al-Qaeda both claim responsibility.
Israel Channel 1 had extensive commentary from Arab Affairs commentator Oded Granot, a former Israeli ambassador to Turkey, counterterrorism expert Boaz Ganor from the Interdisciplinary Center (where Allison's husband teaches), and several others. Summarizing the main points made:
- The choice of first synagogues, then a British target was symbolic. Yet in both cases the vast majority of the casualties were random passers-by;
- Turkey is being targeted less for its ties to the US and Israel than for what it is: a secular, (albeit imperfectly) democratic state that happens to have a Muslim majority, with a middle class and elite whose number one aspiration is Turkey becoming part of the West in general, and an EU member state in particular;
- One longtime aspiration of the radical Islamist movements has been to add Turkey to their sphere of influence. They had hoped that the new moderate Islamist premier Erdogan would move Turkey in this direction, but were disappointed when Erdogan fundamentally continued his predecessors' prolicies
- It is no coincidence that both double attacks were carried out in neighborhoods which are bulwarks of the secular middle and 'upwardly mobile' class;
- Turkey has a history of mercilessly (mechusar rahamim) fighting terrorist groups, over the long haul, and is expected to do the same now. Erdogan's political affiliation may help him get support from moderate Islamists, and thus outside the traditional anti-Islamist strongholds of the secular middle class and the army;
- The small Turkish Islamic extremist group who co-claimed responsibility does exist, but is a small organization whose previous attempts at terrorism were amateuristic flops. It is unlikely in the extreme that they would suddenly have achieved this level of diabolic expertise and coordination without massive input from another organization --- and particularly the synchronized simultaneous attacks are a signature al-Qaeda tactic.
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